{
  "question_id": "W249",
  "slug": "ai-licensed-for-primary-care",
  "title": "An AI is licensed to practise primary care unsupervised",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W249",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0701
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3535
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.389
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.554
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.583
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6101
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W249",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0738
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0969
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2591
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2947
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4656
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4977
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.559
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W249",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A permission counts only if its authorised scope is broad general primary care (undifferentiated presentations plus acute and chronic conditions across organ systems, even if telemedicine- or adult-only); lists of specific conditions, refills or specialty scopes do not count, and phased permissions count only when the autonomous no-per-case-review phase is approved.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W249",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has yet allowed an AI to act as a full family doctor without a clinician checking each case. Utah, the most permissive jurisdiction, has so far approved only narrow pilots for refills, acne creams and physical therapy, and its sandbox law expires in mid-2027 unless renewed. I see about a one-in-five chance of a qualifying approval by the end of 2031. A Utah or other state pilot covering general primary care, with only spot-check review, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.223
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W249",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has yet let an AI act as a general family doctor, diagnosing and prescribing with no clinician checking each case. Utah's program is the only plausible early route, but its approvals so far cover only refills, acne creams and physical therapy, and none has yet dropped case-by-case doctor review. I put the chance at about 2% by end-2027, rising to about 22% by end-2031. The biggest change would be Utah signing a broad AI primary-care pilot.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.223
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}