{
  "question_id": "W78",
  "slug": "ai-issues-binding-court-rulings",
  "title": "An AI issues binding court rulings without a human judge",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W78",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0605
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0958
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1829
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2589
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3402
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3957
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4235
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W78",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0661
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0829
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1878
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2633
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3994
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W78",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Courts worldwide are adopting artificial intelligence fast, but nearly every judiciary that has written rules, including China, Brazil, Russia, India and England's senior judges, insists a human judge must make or sign each ruling. Removing that usually requires new laws, so I see a low but rising chance, about one in eight by the end of 2031. A formal Saudi judicial decision letting software issue orders with no judge involved would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W78",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No court system in a major economy or European Union country lets artificial intelligence issue binding rulings without a judge signing each one. In 2025–2026 China, Russia, Brazil, Spain and others said such tools may assist but not decide. I expect only a slow rise, to about 13% by the end of 2031. The development that would most change this is a formal move letting machines decide small claims with both sides' consent, an idea Britain's senior civil judge has floated.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0609
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0683
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0757
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0833
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0911
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1324
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}