{
  "question_id": "W12",
  "slug": "ai-has-final-say-over-lab-research",
  "title": "An AI has final say over a lab's research direction or compute",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W12",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0884
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1609
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2402
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2814
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3022
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W12",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0837
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0975
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1616
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1792
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1972
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2345
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W12",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Statements that AI 'leads' R&D, high automation-index ratings for sub-tasks, automated safety tripwires, or AI spending bounded allowances do not qualify; only an explicit developer statement that an AI has developer-level research-direction or compute-allocation authority without ordinary human approval/override counts.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0382
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0466
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0552
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0596
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0639
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W12",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Frontier AI companies said repeatedly in the past month that people, not AI, set their research priorities and decide how computing power is used. Admitting otherwise would invite backlash from regulators and the public. Even if AI ends up doing almost all research work, keeping a human sign-off is cheap. My forecast rises slowly to about 8% by 2031. A company formally handing these decisions to an AI, and saying so, would most change it.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0402
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0687
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0738
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0789
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W12",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I estimate about a 10% chance by the end of 2031, and under 2% by the end of 2027. The leading labs currently say in writing that humans set research priorities and compute decisions, and that keeping people in charge is a safety commitment. Explicitly handing an AI binding control would go against strong legal, political and safety incentives. The development that would most raise this estimate is a lab reporting fully autonomous AI decisions on what to research or how to divide its computing power.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0555
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0761
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0812
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0863
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0963
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}