{
  "question_id": "W260",
  "slug": "ai-granted-professional-licence",
  "title": "An AI is granted a licence in law, medicine, or accountancy",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W260",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00828
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02602
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0858
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0986
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12633
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15664
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.18921
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.20624
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W260",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A newly created statutory US medical-licensing board can qualify if it licenses the identified AI itself as a practitioner, but an autonomous-service-provider licence held by the AI's operator does not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0693
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0823
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0961
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1804
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2381
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W260",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No medical, legal or accounting regulator has ever licensed an AI system itself. Today's experiments license the companies running the AI or use temporary pilots, and neither counts here. Medical boards oppose the idea, several AI-friendly states have laws saying AI cannot be a legal person, and 2026 health-AI laws were mostly restrictive. I estimate about 5% by the end of 2031. The biggest change would come from a state or federal law creating a licence for individual AI models.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W260",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No law anywhere in a G20 country lets a medical board, bar or national licensing body license an AI system itself. Today's approaches (Utah's sandbox agreements, proposed state bills that would license the company running the AI, firm approvals in the UK) are all excluded, and doctors' groups strongly oppose AI licences. I estimate about a 6% chance by end-2031. The biggest change would be a US state or Congress passing a law that makes a named AI system the licensed practitioner.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0486
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0562
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}