{
  "question_id": "W263",
  "slug": "ai-generated-work-wins-major-prize",
  "title": "An AI-generated work wins an Oscar, Grammy, Pulitzer, or Booker",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W263",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Both required publications must be dated within the resolution window, and an officially winning music video counts as a film only when the maker acknowledgment establishes primary AI generation of that finished video overall rather than merely an incidental component.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0559
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1409
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2555
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3486
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3714
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3882
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.48
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5094
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W263",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require both dated publications to fall on or after September 16, 2026, and assess AI predominance over the entire officially identified winning work, treating a separately awarded music video as a film rather than as the underlying recording.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0431
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0958
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1879
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.453
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W263",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Both the official win announcement and the maker's acknowledgment must be dated 2026-09-16 or later; 'primarily generated by AI' is read strictly (an explicit 'mostly/primarily/fully AI-generated' statement or a clear quantitative account covering the finished work), so 'AI-assisted' or 'AI did the heavy lifting of the animation' framings do not qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0342
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W263",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 5% that a work its makers admit was mostly made by AI wins an Oscar, Grammy, Pulitzer or Booker by the end of 2031. All four awards require or heavily favor human authorship. Their voters are hostile to AI, and makers of contenders play down AI use rather than admit it. The development that would most change this is an openly AI-made film, such as the one now campaigning for Best Animated Feature, getting nominated.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0367
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0483
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0518
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W263",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "We estimate about a 6% chance by the end of 2031, and almost none before 2028. All four prizes require real human authorship, and the Booker bans any AI-written text. Voters are artists who are strongly hostile to AI, and makers of serious contenders call AI only a helper. The development that would most change this is an openly AI-made film or song becoming a genuine hit and earning a nomination.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0367
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0526
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0578
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}