{
  "question_id": "W39",
  "slug": "ai-gatekeeps-other-ai-systems",
  "title": "An AI holds authority to approve or block other AI systems",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W39",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1618
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2441
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3469
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W39",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count an in-force, model-based veto over even one real training or deployment workflow if no ordinary human exception exists, while allowing charter amendment or emergency-only powers and excluding per-action guardrails.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0764
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2636
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2821
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3175
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W39",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: the publication must explicitly establish (or unambiguously describe binding rules showing) that a model-based system's approve/block decision on training or deployment of other AI systems cannot be reversed through any ordinary human route; advisory AI reviews, AI monitors that escalate to humans, gates with human appeal or override, and 'fully automated/no human review in practice' claims do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0411
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0539
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0583
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W39",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No AI company or government has ever officially said an AI system can approve or block other AI systems with no human able to overrule it. After this year's incidents, every response has added human vetoes, human evaluators and board oversight. I give about a 6% chance by end-2031, with most of that risk falling in later years if AI ends up running its own development. A lab offering an unbypassable AI safety check as a selling point would raise my estimate most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0395
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0508
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0626
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W39",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "AI companies and governments are making AI do much more of the work, but every official statement keeps humans in charge of training and releasing models. The question also needs an explicit statement that no human can overrule the AI, which none has ever made. I put the chance at about 4% by 2031. What would most change this is a lab or government binding itself to an AI safety system's veto with no human override.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0382
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0407
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}