{
  "question_id": "W103",
  "slug": "ai-gains-vote-or-elected-office",
  "title": "An AI gains the right to vote or hold elected office",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W103",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051942
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072684
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092973
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.105671
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.118192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.130537
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W103",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00728
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01915
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02942
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04822
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05536
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08799
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09711
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12658
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W103",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W103",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country, state or city has ever given an AI the legal right to vote or to hold elected office. Election officials who have faced AI candidacies have said that candidates must be human. Recent \"AI minister\" and \"AI councillor\" stunts in Albania and Italy were symbolic appointments, which do not count. The development that would most change this forecast is a legislature or election authority formally moving to let an AI run for or hold an elected seat.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W103",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country, state or city has ever legally let an AI vote or hold elected office, and none is considering it. Every attempt so far has been rejected or needed a human candidate; Wyoming's courts just confirmed this. Several U.S. states are banning AI personhood outright. I put the chance at about 2% by the end of 2031, rising slowly as AI advances. The development that would most change this is a real bill making a named AI eligible for an elected office.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}