{
  "question_id": "W276",
  "slug": "ai-found-to-have-manipulated-1-million",
  "title": "An AI is found to have manipulated a million people",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W276",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0615
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1663
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2574
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2804
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3721
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3947
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4171
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W276",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count algorithmically induced continued use only when the authority affirmatively finds impaired informed or voluntary choice and adopts a qualifying count of actual affected people; ordinary engagement optimization, audience totals, and my own population extrapolations do not suffice.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0727
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0931
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1969
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3783
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4001
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W276",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A qualifying finding must identify an ML system (not company statements) as generating/selecting/delivering the manipulative interventions and must expressly adopt a count of at least 1M distinct people whose beliefs or decisions were actually altered; violation counts tied only to corporate misrepresentations, exposure, clicks, or user totals do not qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W276",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "This bar is very high. An official body must formally find that a specific AI system actually manipulated at least one million identified people, and adopt that number. No authority has ever published such a finding. Big US cases keep settling, and regulators usually count views or clicks rather than people actually manipulated. What would most change this forecast is a final court or regulator ruling in a major AI chatbot or social media case that adopts an estimate of millions of manipulated users.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W276",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 10% by the end of 2031. No court, regulator or official inquiry has ever found that an AI system actually manipulated a counted million people. Authorities usually find only that conduct was \"likely\" to mislead, or they report how many people were reached. Big US cases keep settling before verdict. What would most change this is a large-state jury verdict against Meta in Florida that counts more than a million affected children.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}