{
  "question_id": "W237",
  "slug": "ai-discovered-drug-meets-phase-3-endpoint",
  "title": "An AI-discovered drug meets a Phase 3 endpoint in a hard disease",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W237",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count disease-specific symptomatic treatment such as Alzheimer’s-related agitation, but do not treat post-opening data cleaning or database lock as sufficient when the primary-endpoint observations ended before opening.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0738
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1634
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1926
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4771
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W237",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count symptom-targeted treatment of Alzheimer’s disease, including agitation, and therapeutic metabolic combinations registered as drugs; neither disease modification nor a novel molecule is required.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.36
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.42
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.462
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.545
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.559
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W237",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "AI credit read strictly (explicit discovery contribution, not generic 'AI-powered platform used to develop'); POLARIS-AD's pre-opening last-patient-visit treated as likely failing the observation-period rule; symptomatic AD-agitation trials given ~50% chance of counting as 'Alzheimer's disease'.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W237",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 9% by the end of 2031. I could find no drug that its developer explicitly credits to AI and that is now in a late-stage trial for Alzheimer's, ALS, pancreatic cancer or brain cancer. The likeliest route is a new late-stage trial of BioXcel's AI-identified agitation drug in Alzheimer's patients. That depends on Teva, which is bidding for the drug in bankruptcy, and agitation might not count as treating Alzheimer's. Teva starting that trial would most change my forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0261
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0406
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0623
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0677
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0779
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0828
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0877
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0925
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W237",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Few drugs credited to artificial intelligence are in late-stage testing for these four diseases, and none has a clearly qualifying success in sight. The nearest readout, a Korean Alzheimer's pill due in November 2026, failed earlier testing and only loosely credits AI. The forecast would rise most if the maker of a successful pancreatic cancer drug explicitly credited AI with designing it, or if Teva launched a new Alzheimer's agitation trial of BioXcel's AI-identified drug.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0507
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0572
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0634
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0695
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0757
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0818
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}