{
  "question_id": "W259",
  "slug": "ai-delivers-most-instruction",
  "title": "A government has AI deliver most teaching in a core subject",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W259",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0306
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0838
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0967
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1567
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1926
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2624
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3392
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W259",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0926
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1741
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1947
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2462
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2689
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2923
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3471
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W259",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Israel's June 2026 'English for Everyone/720' programme (opt-in registration, minimum 2 of 4 weekly English hours, teacher-led framing, adopted before the opening date) is treated as non-qualifying; a later formal policy that makes AI-led learning mandatory and explicitly more than 50% of a core subject's scheduled time would count as a new post-opening adoption.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0331
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0406
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0667
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0714
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0759
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W259",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has formally put AI in charge of most of a core subject's class time in all its state schools. The boldest programmes, in Israel, El Salvador and some Brazilian states, keep teachers central and stop at or below half of lesson time. Backlash against screens and AI in classrooms is growing. The odds rise slowly as AI improves. The biggest change would be an official timetable assigning most of a subject's lessons to AI tutors.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}