{
  "question_id": "W79",
  "slug": "ai-decides-asylum-sentences-or-parole",
  "title": "An AI decides asylum, sentences, or parole unreviewed",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W79",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0689
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0819
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0948
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1522
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1674
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1833
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2655
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W79",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0567
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1676
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1843
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2628
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3272
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W79",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Statutory automatic release, FSA time-credit/PATTERN risk scoring, fixed-penalty or rules-based workflows, and AI tools whose outputs a human signs off are treated as non-qualifying; only an explicit national-executive statement that an AI selects asylum, sentence or parole outcomes without universal prior individual human review counts.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0367
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0579
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W79",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Governments using AI in asylum, sentencing or parole all say a human makes every final decision, and data-protection and AI laws push them to keep it that way. Most of the remaining chance comes from Norway, where a rule-based system has decided most temporary-protection claims from Ukrainians since 2023. That probably does not count as artificial intelligence under this question. The forecast would rise sharply if a government said a learning-based system grants or refuses asylum with no case-by-case review.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W79",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Every government using AI on asylum, criminal sentences or parole still says a human makes each decision, and data-protection and AI laws push hard in that direction. The likeliest way this resolves \"yes\" is a loose reading: Norway already grants most Ukrainian protection applications by automated rules with no caseworker involved. What would most change my forecast is a government openly saying an AI system now issues some such decisions on its own, with no one checking each one.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}