{
  "question_id": "W297",
  "slug": "ai-datacentre-borrower-defaults",
  "title": "A $5 billion AI datacentre borrower defaults",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W297",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0739
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0989
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1583
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1902
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2895
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3857
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4728
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.548
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W297",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0684
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1689
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2859
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3637
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4715
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.608
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6276
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W297",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Parent and SPV debt are not aggregated. A pure-play AI cloud company's 'general corporate purposes' debt (e.g., CoreWeave's parent notes) counts only if a permitted source (filing, court declaration, or rating report) ties the proceeds to GPUs or datacentres, so those scenarios are partly discounted. Private-SPV missed payments count only if documented in the permitted sources.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.388
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W297",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance that a large AI-infrastructure borrower defaults by the end of 2031 at about 35%. Odds rise over time, from under 1% this year to about 11% by end-2028. Nobody is in acute distress yet: AI revenue is booming and much of the debt is backed by tech giants. But heavily indebted cloud-computing firms like CoreWeave, rising interest rates and debt falling due around 2030 make a default plausible later. A sharp fall in AI demand would raise my estimate most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.331
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.349
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W297",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Credit stress around artificial intelligence data centres is building, but no borrower carrying $5 billion or more of such debt looks close to default yet. The most leveraged large one, CoreWeave, still has plenty of cash. I put about a 3% chance on a qualifying default by end-2027 and about 26% by end-2031. Most of that comes from a possible bust after 2027. What would most raise my estimate is OpenAI failing to raise new money, since it is the key customer behind many of these loans.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.18
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.261
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}