{
  "question_id": "W52",
  "slug": "ai-cyberattack-blacks-out-10-million",
  "title": "An AI cyberattack cuts power to 10 million people for a day",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W52",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007608
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017992
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022411
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039903
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075872
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086962
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.098831
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.124776
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W52",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011964
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.030604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048428
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054613
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.061231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.074793
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.081732
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.089079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.096366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103595
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W52",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts only an official national-government publication that affirmatively says AI systems executed the attack that caused the outage (including self-serving or propaganda claims if explicit and officially published), plus an eligible explicit estimate of at least 10M people each without power for 24 or more hours; in mixed kinetic-cyber outages, the AI-executed cyberattack must be named as the cause.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W52",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No cyberattack has caused a blackout anywhere near this size; the worst, in Ukraine, cut power to about 225,000 customers for a few hours. Smarter hacking tools and wars raise the risk, but this needs a day-long blackout for 10 million people, a government saying artificial intelligence carried out the attack, and official figures proving it: about 2.5% by 2031. A cyber-caused nationwide blackout during a war, such as in Iran, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0254
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W52",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No cyberattack has ever caused a blackout anywhere near this size. The worst, in Ukraine, cut power to about half a million people for a few hours, and this question needs 10 million people out for a full day. A government would also have to say officially that AI carried out the attack. Strong AI hacking tools and active wars push the chance up a little, to about 2% over five years. A wartime attack on Taiwan's grid would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0237
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}