{
  "question_id": "W234",
  "slug": "ai-credited-result-retracted",
  "title": "A top journal retracts a headline result credited to AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W234",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0571
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0854
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1739
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3733
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5654
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5936
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6201
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W234",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I treat AI-guided scientific discoveries and designs as eligible even when humans validate them, but exclude a headline consisting only of a model’s measured predictive accuracy.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0459
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2332
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2677
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3622
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3972
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4617
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5842
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W234",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Credited to AI includes ML-inferred, predicted, designed or discovered headline results (e.g., ML-upscaled global maps, AI-designed proteins or materials, AI-scientist findings) but not findings solely about AI performance or effects; the retraction notice itself must tie an identified error or fabrication to that headline result, so vague loss-of-confidence notices like Poore et al. 2024 would likely not suffice.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.52
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W234",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "These five journals retract only about a dozen papers a year in total, and none has ever clearly retracted a paper whose main finding was credited to AI on the grounds that the finding was wrong. But papers crediting AI with their main result now make up a fast-growing share of what these journals publish, so a first such case over five years is close to a coin flip. A formal investigation into a major AI-discovery paper would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.406
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.426
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W234",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at a little under half by the end of 2031, and very low this year. The number of top-journal papers that credit discoveries to AI is growing fast, and these journals retract about a dozen papers a year. But this exact kind of retraction has never clearly happened, and disputed AI claims have so far been corrected rather than retracted. A top journal retracting a prominent AI discovery outright would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.29
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.408
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.456
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}