{
  "question_id": "W266",
  "slug": "ai-content-majority-of-viewing",
  "title": "AI-generated content takes a majority of time on a major platform",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W266",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002798
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004792
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016688
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02943
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048745
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.141773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161512
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.181636
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.202095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.22284
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W266",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003497
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034977
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044627
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099766
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.116871
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.153574
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.173041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.192888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.213066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.233527
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W266",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only company-authored, worldwide, service-wide time-share figures for content the company identifies as wholly/primarily AI-generated count; broad AIGC labels (e.g., TikTok's 'generated or significantly edited', YouTube's 'altered or synthetic') do not qualify without a separate fully-generated share.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0266
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W266",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Content made by artificial intelligence is nowhere near half of listening or viewing time on these services. Spotify says fully machine-made music gets well under 1% of listening. All four companies are labeling or demoting such content and rarely publish these figures, so I put the chance at about 2% by 2031. The biggest change would be machine-made video becoming most of what people watch on TikTok or YouTube, and the company saying so.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0188
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}