{
  "question_id": "W128",
  "slug": "ai-commands-forces-in-theatre",
  "title": "An AI exercises command over a major power's forces",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W128",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A bounded nonlethal or uncrewed formation can qualify, but the ministry must explicitly confirm discretionary operational-order authority in a real theatre or operation, not merely autonomous execution of a fixed human-assigned task.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0931
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1569
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1805
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2567
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.409
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W128",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A bounded, potentially non-lethal command over an identifiable formation can qualify, including an all-uncrewed formation, but autonomous platform coordination alone cannot; the ministry must explicitly confirm operational order authority without routine prior human approval.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0518
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0651
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0801
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0966
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2488
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2743
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.327
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W128",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts only if an official ministry publication (not a service/command release unless adopted) explicitly says an AI system decides and issues orders or missions to identifiable units or formations in a real theatre or named operation without routine prior human approval. Generic 'autonomous swarm', 'commander's intent orchestration', 'human-machine teaming', air/missile-defence fire control or cyber autonomy does not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0504
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0545
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0587
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0629
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W128",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "None of the six defence ministries has said anything close. Even the US War Department, the most aggressive on military AI, says its battle-management AI only gives options to human commanders who \"remain in charge of every decision.\" Fast AI progress and the US push for autonomous warfare make such an announcement possible late in the decade, so I put it at about 6% by end-2031. The biggest change would be a US statement that an AI directed a force in a named operation without humans approving its orders.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0486
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0577
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0625
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W128",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Even the most aggressive defence ministries still say human commanders approve every decision. China and others say AI must stay under human control, and the question demands an explicit official statement on several specific points. So an announcement that an AI actually commands forces in a real operation looks unlikely before 2032; I estimate about 6%. The development that would most change this is the Pentagon openly describing its new autonomous warfare forces as run by AI with humans only monitoring.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0525
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}