{
  "question_id": "W196",
  "slug": "ai-chief-executive-of-major-company",
  "title": "A major listed company says an AI is its chief executive",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W196",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0681
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0867
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1994
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2514
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2776
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.38
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4292
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W196",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1729
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1969
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2738
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3555
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3832
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.411
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W196",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Internal 'AI社長'/AI-CEO avatars or chatbots (e.g., SMFG, Daito Trust) and advisory 'AI executives' (e.g., Kirin CoreMate) do not count; only an index-constituent parent's own official statement that an AI holds (incl. co/rotating/interim) or performs its company-wide CEO role counts.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0565
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0614
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0664
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W196",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No large company in these four stock indexes has ever officially named an artificial intelligence system as its chief executive. Big firms use such systems only as advisers or digital copies of their human bosses, and laws and investor pressure discourage going further. I estimate about 1% by end-2027, rising to about 10% by end-2031. A major Japanese or Chinese firm formally naming one as co-chief executive would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0845
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0921
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}