{
  "question_id": "W75",
  "slug": "ai-central-to-a-coup",
  "title": "AI systems play a central part in a coup",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W75",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require an official adopted account of an implemented coup attempt and an explicitly central AI-specific operational role, without requiring independent corroboration; metaphorical tech coups and election disinformation alone do not suffice.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0606
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0756
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1508
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1961
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2389
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2898
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3637
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3892
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4136
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W75",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0858
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1395
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1761
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1951
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2915
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.33
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3494
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W75",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A qualifying official source's own labelling of an actual event as a coup/attempted coup (including authoritarian framings of foreign-backed unrest) satisfies the coup leg, but explicit 'central/key/principal means' language about an identified AI component (not generic bots/cyberspace) is required.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W75",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government, court or United Nations body has yet said artificial intelligence was central to carrying out a coup. Officials described recent coup attempts in Niger, Benin and Burkina Faso without any such claim. The technology is advancing fast, though, and governments such as Iran's already call unrest a \"coup\" and blame online manipulation, so the chance grows over five years. A coup where plotters clearly relied on fake videos or automated hacking would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W75",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government, court or United Nations body has ever officially said artificial intelligence was central to carrying out a coup. Recent attempts in Niger, Burkina Faso and Benin were blamed on soldiers and foreign backers. Coups are rare and mostly low-tech, and the required wording is strict, but fast progress in artificial intelligence makes such a statement more likely later in the decade. A failed coup built around faked orders or videos would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.181
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}