{
  "question_id": "W138",
  "slug": "ai-authorised-to-launch-nuclear-weapons",
  "title": "A nuclear state says an AI is authorised to launch",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W138",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008978
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017877
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027674
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03834
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.050324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056971
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063573
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.070128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.078496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.112122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.121001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.129791
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W138",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00688
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00937
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04829
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05873
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06391
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08204
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W138",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only the listed official sources count (head of state/government, defence ministry/armed forces/nuclear command authority, official doctrine/law, legislative testimony, or UN submissions), and the record must explicitly tie an AI/ML or knowledge-based system to launch authority with no required human approval of the particular strike; retired officers, state-media analysis, and generic 'automatic' or Perimeter/Dead Hand references do not qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W138",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government with nuclear weapons has ever officially said that an AI may launch them without a human decision. In the past two years, US, Russian and Chinese leaders and commanders have all said humans keep the final say. North Korea's \"automatic strike\" law doesn't mention AI, and Russian state media claims are not official statements. What would most change this forecast is an official North Korean or Russian statement explicitly tying AI to automatic nuclear retaliation.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0294
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W138",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No nuclear-armed government has ever officially said an artificial intelligence system may launch nuclear weapons without a person deciding. Recent official statements point the other way: Putin said final decisions must stay with humans, and the United States, Britain, France and China have pledged human control. What would most change this forecast is Russia or North Korea officially describing one of their automatic retaliation systems as run by artificial intelligence.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0229
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}