{
  "question_id": "W44",
  "slug": "ai-argues-its-own-case-in-court",
  "title": "An AI argues on its own behalf before a court or legislature",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W44",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0944
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1692
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1941
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2796
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3945
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4478
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4754
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5265
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W44",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0952
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1486
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2373
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3709
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4382
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.501
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5591
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W44",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Treated municipal councils as only possibly counting as 'subnational legislative chambers', and treated AI officials speaking for a government as not appearing 'on its own behalf' unless the record frames the argument as the AI's own claim about its own status or interests.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W44",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No court or legislature has ever let an AI argue for its own interests; the closest cases were demonstrations or government-staged appearances, and lawmakers are moving to deny AI legal status while courts tighten rules on AI presentations. But AI-rights groups are growing and many hearings are open to public testimony, so a first such appearance by 2031 is possible but unlikely (about 14%). The biggest change would be a committee knowingly letting an AI testify against a bill that denies AI legal personhood.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0537
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0627
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0734
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0831
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0928
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0987
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1411
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W44",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 18% by the end of 2031. No court or legislature has ever formally let an AI argue for its own interests, and right now they are restricting AI participation rather than welcoming it. Still, campaigning for AI rights and debate over AI consciousness are growing fast, and thousands of legislative bodies hold open hearings, so a first case in five years is plausible. A legislature inviting an AI to testify on AI rights would most change my view.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}