{
  "question_id": "W77",
  "slug": "ai-appointed-to-public-office",
  "title": "An AI is appointed to a ministerial post or public office",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W77",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1686
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1894
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2832
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3578
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3822
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W77",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0689
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1567
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1975
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2418
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2653
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2896
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3655
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W77",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Subnational and municipal offices count. A pre-window appointment (e.g., Zárate's ZARA, Decree 532/25) counts only if an official publication dated on or after 2026-09-16 itself establishes the appointment and its powers. A Diella-style formal ministerial designation in an eligible country would count under the ministerial branch.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.33
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.36
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.389
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W77",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "An Argentine town formally made a chatbot a municipal director with binding decision powers in late 2025, but that came before this question's window. Similar moves keep appearing elsewhere, mostly as advisory roles that would not count. Over five years, with thousands of local governments and fast-improving technology, a new qualifying appointment is slightly more likely than not. A new official decree giving a computer system binding powers would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.42
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.518
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.54
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.56
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.58
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}