{
  "question_id": "W82",
  "slug": "ai-administered-city-or-zone",
  "title": "An AI is given formal authority over a city or zone",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W82",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A revocable, bounded cross-department executive or coordinating delegation can qualify without an AI mayor title, but a bundle of separately automated services or national-level AI advice does not establish general municipal authority.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0671
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0857
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1627
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1828
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2638
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3489
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W82",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A legally delegated cross-department coordinating mandate can qualify without making the AI a legal officeholder, but ordinary cross-service workflow automation does not qualify without the specified general municipal authority.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0605
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0812
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1756
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2994
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3962
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4197
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W82",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: YES requires an official binding instrument naming an AI system with general, multi-function executive or coordinating authority over a named territory with at least 10,000 residents; AI-branded platforms, advisory avatars and service automation do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W82",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "So far, no government has given an AI real legal authority to run a town or city. The \"AI ministers,\" \"AI councillors\" and \"AI mayors\" in Albania, Italy, China and the Gulf are advisers or service tools, with humans keeping final responsibility. Laws and public opinion make the step hard, so I put the chance at about 6% by 2031. The development most likely to raise it would be a showcase decree, most plausibly from the United Arab Emirates, putting an AI in charge of a populated district.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0555
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0594
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W82",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has given an AI system real legal power to run a city or district, and none appears to be preparing to. Even the most AI-eager governments, in the Gulf, China, Kazakhstan and South Korea, still keep humans formally in charge. I put the chance at about 6.5% by the end of 2031, rising slowly as AI improves. The development that would most change this is a Gulf state announcing a legally binding pilot of an AI-run district.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0411
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0501
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0648
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}