{
  "question_id": "W281",
  "slug": "65-percent-of-americans-thriving",
  "title": "65% of Americans are thriving, per Gallup",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W281",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005587
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018842
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.040913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051721
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W281",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008767
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013915
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.020609
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024526
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04389
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049627
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W281",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Gallup's latest national figure shows only 48% of American adults thriving. In 176 measurements since 2008 the figure has never topped 59.2%, so reaching 65% would mean a gain of about 17 points, beyond anything Gallup has ever recorded. With consumer mood near record lows in late 2026, I put the chance at under 2% over five years. A sudden, broad surge in Americans' optimism, such as a sweeping AI-driven economic boom, would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W281",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Gallup's latest reading has 48% of American adults \"thriving.\" The highest level in more than 175 measurements since 2008 was about 59%, in mid-2021. Reaching 65% would take an unprecedented jump of about 17 points, to a level only the very best-off counties have reached. The chance of that within five years is about 1%. A sharp, lasting rebound in Americans' optimism about their future lives, pushing readings back toward the high 50s, would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}