{
  "question_id": "W187",
  "slug": "500000-job-cuts-attributed-to-ai",
  "title": "500,000 announced US job cuts attributed to AI in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W187",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1502
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4878
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4939
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6614
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W187",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0939
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1751
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2617
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.472
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6623
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W187",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only Challenger's 'Artificial Intelligence' reason-category totals for a single calendar year count (not 'Technological Update' variants), resolving on the publication date of the Challenger report showing a YTD or full-year total of at least 500,000; 2026 YTD through September is 120,136.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W187",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Through September 2026, Challenger has tied about 120,000 US job cuts this year to artificial intelligence, and recent months have slowed sharply. Reaching 500,000 in one year would take roughly three and a half times this year's total, a level only one layoff reason has ever hit, during the pandemic. I put the chance at about 15% by 2031. A fast wave of company-wide cuts that openly name AI would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.148
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W187",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Through September 2026, Challenger counted about 120,000 job cuts blamed on AI. That is a record, but under a quarter of the 500,000 needed, and recent months are running near 4,000. Hitting 500,000 in one year would mean AI is blamed for about as many layoffs as all reasons combined in a typical year, which only COVID has done for a single reason. A wave of very large layoffs openly blamed on AI, spreading beyond tech, would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0559
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0791
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0911
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0984
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1108
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}