{
  "question_id": "W220",
  "slug": "5-million-driverless-rides-a-week",
  "title": "An operator provides 5 million driverless rides in a week",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W220",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0578
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3768
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6804
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7722
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7938
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W220",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04777
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.22221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.31165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3977
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.48202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.55454
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.62136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.67437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.75069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.77812
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7992
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.81626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.83096
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W220",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A weekly paid-ride figure of at least 5M counts only if it is US-specific or the operator's paid rides are all in the US at the time; statements on official domains or in investor-relations material count, including Alphabet CEO earnings remarks.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.47
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W220",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Waymo, the clear leader, provides about half a million paid driverless rides a week and would need about ten times that. If it grows one and a half to two times a year, it could pass five million around 2030–2031. But its growth stalled in 2026, political resistance is rising, and it must publish a qualifying US-only weekly figure. The biggest swing factor is Waymo's 2027 growth: reaching about two million weekly rides would raise this a lot.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.29
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.331
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.367
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.431
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W220",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Waymo, the clear leader, provides just over 500,000 paid driverless rides a week in the US, about a tenth of the 5 million threshold. Its growth has slowed in 2026, so a tenfold rise looks most likely around 2030. Waymo would also have to publish a US-specific weekly figure on an official channel. The development that would most change this forecast is whether Waymo's growth speeds up again in 2027 as its new vehicles arrive, or whether Tesla's robotaxi fleet takes off.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.25
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.34
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.38
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.42
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.515
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}