{
  "question_id": "W110",
  "slug": "32-hour-week-enacted",
  "title": "A G20 country enacts a 32-hour working week",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W110",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0395
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0577
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0967
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1617
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2175
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W110",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0764
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0893
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2213
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W110",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only national laws setting general ordinary weekly hours or a general overtime threshold at ≤32 hours (including binding automatic phase-ins) count; reductions to 35–40 hours (Brazil, Mexico, Korea's 36-hour goal, ACTU's 35-hour ask) and sector/subnational/public-only rules do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W110",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major economy has ever set a legal working week of 32 hours or less, and none is close. Current reforms elsewhere stop at 40 hours (Mexico, Brazil), and South Korea has chosen voluntary pilots over a shorter legal week. The US 32-hour bill cannot pass the current Congress. I put the five-year chance at about 2%. A sudden wave of job losses from artificial intelligence that pushed a left-leaning government to adopt work-sharing would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0236
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W110",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "None of the 19 Group of Twenty countries is close to a legal 32-hour standard week. The lowest is France at 35 hours. Recent cuts in Mexico and Brazil stop at 40, and South Korea and Australia are debating 36 or 35. The only 32-hour bill, in the American Congress, has no path under Republican control. The development that would most change this is an artificial-intelligence jobs crisis pushing a left-leaning government to pass a phased four-day week.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}