{
  "question_id": "W226",
  "slug": "100000-tonnes-launched-to-orbit",
  "title": "100,000 tonnes are launched to orbit in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W226",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I follow GCAT’s orbital/marginal-orbital classification, including deliberately short-lived insertions, and require a completed calendar year ending after the opening date; thus the last horizon can establish a result for 2030 or earlier, not for 2031.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001535
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022767
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025762
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.125807
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139825
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.142162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.325372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.351072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.355356
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W226",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "The observation-period rule makes 2026 the first eligible completed calendar year, ordinarily publishable from 2027 onward, and the September 2031 horizon can include completed calendar years only through 2030.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001514
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019486
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021938
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.100722
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111514
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114622
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.291698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.31153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.316349
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W226",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Resolution needs a complete calendar year (so 2027–2030 are the candidate years) whose GCAT-summed Mass (ships, payloads, stages that reach orbit) or BryceTech figure exceeds 100,000 t; Starship ship mass as catalogued by GCAT (currently 120 t per flight) counts each flight.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.228
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W226",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "In 2025 the world put about 4,200 tonnes into orbit, so 100,000 tonnes would need roughly one fully loaded Starship flight to orbit every day for a full year. Starship reached orbit for the first time only in September 2026, so only 2029 or 2030 are realistic candidate years. I put the chance at about 12% by the end of 2031. The development that would most raise it is Starship catching and reflying its upper stage in 2027, with launches climbing toward daily by 2028–2029.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W226",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The world now puts about 4,000–4,500 tonnes a year into orbit, so passing 100,000 tonnes needs roughly a twenty-fold jump. Only SpaceX's Starship, flying several hundred times a year, could do that. Starship reached orbit for the first time only in September 2026, and its flight-rate targets keep slipping. So this most plausibly happens in 2030 and is still unlikely. The biggest change would be Starship reusing ships routinely and flying weekly or more during 2027.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}