{
  "question_id": "W214",
  "slug": "100000-humanoid-robots-in-a-year",
  "title": "A manufacturer ships 100,000 humanoid robots in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W214",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Programmable toy-sized humanoids qualify, and mobile robots with separately selectable object sorting and floor cleaning qualify as general-purpose mobile robots, but ordinary cleaning-tool extension arms do not independently establish multiple work functions.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1634
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1926
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2734
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3896
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4354
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4636
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6752
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7918
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8693
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8765
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W214",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count programmable toy humanoids and mobile cleaners with separately documented object-picking/placing and cleaning functions, but not ordinary cleaning robots or robots whose additional functions are only navigation or inspection.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1941
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.476
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.518
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5951
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8654
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8896
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.9066
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W214",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts only manufacturer-published calendar-year (or year-to-date) production or shipment figures of at least 100k bipedal humanoids and/or multi-function mobile manipulators. Mixed totals that include remote-controlled or pre-programmed toys (e.g., UBTech's non-full-size category) count only if the qualifying portion is reported separately. Cumulative figures count only where they can be differenced into a single calendar year.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.24
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.33
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.535
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.55
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.59
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.67
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.69
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.715
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.75
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.76
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.765
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W214",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The top humanoid robot makers (AgiBot, Unitree, UBTech, Tesla) each build roughly 20,000 to 40,000 a year in 2026, far below 100,000. Output is growing several times a year, and several listed makers must publish their unit counts. So one is likely to report a 100,000 year around 2028 to 2030; I put that at about 69% by the end of 2031. A sharp slowdown in demand, or Tesla's robot production stalling, would most lower this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.32
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.39
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.51
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.56
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.57
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.58
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.64
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.67
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.69
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W214",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The biggest humanoid robot makers are building roughly 20,000 to 45,000 a year in 2026, so one company reaching 100,000 in a year needs three- to five-fold growth. UBTech's cheap small humanoids, Tesla's Optimus ramp and AgiBot all have plausible routes there between 2027 and 2030. Annual reports land early each year, so I see little chance before 2028 and about 64% by late 2031. Tesla's 2027 production pace, and whether it publishes counts, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.406
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.508
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.53
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.539
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.619
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.624
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.636
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}