{
  "question_id": "W217",
  "slug": "100-million-humanoid-robots-in-a-year",
  "title": "100 million humanoid robots ship in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W217",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require completed calendar-year totals for 2026 or later, and include small or toy-sized humanoids if they satisfy the stated functional manipulation and programmability requirements; neither human-scale size nor general-purpose autonomy is required for humanoids.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 1e-7
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 4e-7
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 5e-7
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0000012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0000092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0000112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0000262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0000312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00017119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00032117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00038115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00118084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00143055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00262883
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00297791
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00596898
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00696301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01192819
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W217",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require a completed January–December observation, apply no minimum robot size beyond the stated definitions, and treat cleaning-only variations or obstacle relocation to enable cleaning as insufficient by themselves to establish general-purpose capability.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 1e-7
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0000101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0000121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0000201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0000301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0010048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0020037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061917
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0076825
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0121479
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0170871
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0269163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0317817
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0492096
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W217",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Nonoverlapping quarterly figures from one manufacturer within a single calendar year may be summed to reach 100M before that year ends; IFR general consumer/professional service-robot totals count only if IFR itself establishes that at least 100M units meet the humanoid or general-purpose definitions.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00454
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00524
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W217",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 0.4% by the end of 2031. About 7,000 full-size humanoid robots were sold worldwide in 2025, and about 25,000 shipped in the first half of 2026. Even the boldest company targets and analyst forecasts put yearly output in 2030 far below 100 million, especially for a single maker. What would most change this forecast is robots, guided by advanced AI, building new robot factories at runaway speed.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00385
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}