{
  "question_id": "W216",
  "slug": "10-million-humanoid-robots-in-a-year",
  "title": "10 million humanoid robots ship in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W216",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Small and entertainment humanoids qualify; for mobile robots I count independently programmable cleaning and inspection/patrol or manipulation as distinct work classes, but not navigation cameras, vacuum/mop variants, or obstacle removal solely in service of cleaning.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01934
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02621
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03789
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05994
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.10364
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.18385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23282
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W216",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I include articulated humanoid toys regardless of size or autonomy, but treat a non-humanoid cleaner as qualifying only when technical descriptions establish separately useful physical task classes rather than merely additional cleaning functions or incidental obstacle handling.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001799
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002797
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027962
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035738
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056952
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.090642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10883
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.153388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.17032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.213464
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W216",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Small or toy humanoids count if their body plan and specs meet the humanoid definition; robot vacuums with auxiliary arms are treated as dedicated cleaners; IFR's broad consumer-robot total (~34.2M) and non-IFR or Chinese statistics-bureau totals do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W216",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Humanoid robot output is still tiny. The international robotics federation counted about 7,000 full-size humanoids sold worldwide in 2025, and 25,000–40,000 humanoids shipped in the first half of 2026. Hitting 10 million in one year by 2030 would take roughly 100-fold growth, about ten times even bullish bank forecasts, so I put the chance at about 2%. What would most change this is Tesla's planned 10-million-a-year Texas robot factory reaching full output quickly.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0241
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W216",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 3% that a maker or the robotics industry body reports 10 million humanoid or general-purpose robots in one year by 2031. In 2025 only about 7,000 full-size humanoids were sold worldwide, and output is a few tens of thousands so far this year. Even bullish banks expect about 1 million a year across all makers by 2030. A breakthrough that makes robots broadly useful by 2028, setting off a factory build-out on the scale of the car industry, would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}