{
  "question_id": "W215",
  "slug": "1-million-humanoid-robots-in-a-year",
  "title": "A manufacturer ships 1 million humanoid robots in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W215",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count programmable toy-sized humanoids meeting the stated anatomy and manipulation requirements, and treat independently commandable mobile inspection or home patrol as materially different from cleaning, while excluding navigation-only cameras and requiring separately established annual output of qualifying models.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3261
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3666
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3887
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5798
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6805
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W215",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I include small programmable humanoids with two manipulating arms and mobile cleaners with documented separate object-handling or inspection tasks, but not cleaning-only mechanisms or navigation sensing, and require calendar-year disclosure of the qualifying units themselves.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0682
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0962
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1714
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2942
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3951
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4677
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6752
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W215",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Literal reading: requires a manufacturer-authored report establishing >=1,000,000 qualifying units produced (or shipped) within a single calendar year, published 2026-09-16 to the horizon; capacity/targets/cumulative milestones excluded, so effectively only CY2028-2030 output or >=1M in H1 2031 can resolve YES within the window.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W215",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Today's largest humanoid robot makers build tens of thousands of robots a year, and even optimistic analysts expect the whole world to make roughly one million in 2030. A single company making a million in one year, and saying so officially, by 2031 would require Tesla or a Chinese leader to hit very aggressive goals. The development that would most change this is robots becoming genuinely useful for general work, setting off a surge in demand.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W215",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Today the biggest humanoid robot makers each build only tens of thousands a year. Even optimistic analysts expect the whole world to sell fewer than a million a year in 2030. A \"yes\" most likely needs Tesla's new robot factories to reach full speed by about 2030 and Tesla to report that output officially. The development that would most change this forecast is clear evidence that robots have become useful enough for buyers to order hundreds of thousands.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.18
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}